Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarersloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monaspawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wayfarers
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
meLes · 6 games
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 6 games
Linasignature
Squad1x · 6 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
586 picks · 444 bans
Marci
457 picks · 657 bans
Dawnbreaker
363 picks · 487 bans
Puck
347 picks · 791 bans
Winter Wyvern
304 picks · 386 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 492 bans
Dazzle
255 picks · 161 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 823 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Wayfarers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:22
Wayfarers 47%Monaspa 53%
The model gave 53% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 19:58.
Game 2prediction missed27:17
Wayfarers 47%Monaspa 53%
The model gave 53% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 29:26.
Game 3prediction correct19:36
Wayfarers 47%Monaspa 53%
The model gave 53% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 37:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 53%
Series resultMonaspa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3