BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Cutloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 10 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 9 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 446 bans
Marci
459 picks · 661 bans
Dawnbreaker
364 picks · 491 bans
Puck
348 picks · 796 bans
Winter Wyvern
307 picks · 388 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 490 bans
Dazzle
255 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
253 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% SG e-sports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:44
SG e-sports 66%The Cut 34%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by The Cut in 41:05.
Game 2prediction missed39:40
SG e-sports 66%The Cut 34%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by The Cut in 48:57.
Game 3prediction missed18:39
SG e-sports 66%The Cut 34%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by The Cut in 37:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 66%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3