Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Anime Enjoyersloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Anime Enjoyers
Marcisignature
sunset · 9 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ulnit · 7 games
Earth Spirit
sunset · 5 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ulnit · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
Nyx Assassin
sunset · 4 games
Tusk
sunset · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 451 bans
Marci
461 picks · 663 bans
Dawnbreaker
366 picks · 496 bans
Puck
352 picks · 799 bans
Winter Wyvern
307 picks · 388 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 490 bans
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
255 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Anime Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Anime Enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:46
Anime Enjoyers 52%Monaspa 48%
The model gave 52% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Monaspa in 42:25.
Game 2prediction missed11:41
Anime Enjoyers 52%Monaspa 48%
The model gave 52% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Monaspa in 21:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteAnime Enjoyers · 52%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2