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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Anime Enjoyerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 38 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 21 game
62%
Visage
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 20 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 20 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 18 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 17 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 16 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 14 games
71%

Anime Enjoyers

Marci
Marcisignature
sunset · 7 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ulnit · 7 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sunset · 5 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
sunset · 4 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ulnit · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 450 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
457 picks · 665 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
368 picks · 497 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 800 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
307 picks · 390 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
303 picks · 487 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
53%
Zeus
Zeus
255 picks · 342 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Anime Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
cybercats 53%Anime Enjoyers 47%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 16:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistEgor
53% · 26 games52% · 167 games
Templar AssassinUlnit
Templar Assassin
Venomancer
VenomancerDkFogas
50% · 14 games45% · 113 games
Tusksunset
Tusk
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
45% · 65 games
Snapfire
SnapfireFezor
50% · 122 games
Marci
MarciHduo
56% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct9:35
cybercats 50%Anime Enjoyers 50%
The model gave 50% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 18:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistEgor
47% · 35 games46% · 69 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNefrit
47% · 40 games55% · 155 games
Marcisunset
Marci
Enigma
EnigmaDkFogas
57% · 52 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
45% · 55 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageFezor
49% · 42 games
Game 3prediction correct24:32
cybercats 48%Anime Enjoyers 52%
The model gave 52% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosEgor
56% · 13 games46% · 114 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsDkFogas
48% · 102 games58% · 101 game
Marcisunset
Marci
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNefrit
47% · 40 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
48% · 49 games
Silencer
SilencerHduo
48% · 11 games
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 56%
Series resultAnime Enjoyers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3