BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Banesignature
Poloson · 9 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 9 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 7 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Poloson · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 27 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
Chaos Knightsignature
JaCkky · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
593 picks · 450 bans
Marci
459 picks · 665 bans
Dawnbreaker
368 picks · 501 bans
Puck
355 picks · 801 bans
Winter Wyvern
308 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 484 bans
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
255 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
Team SMG 37%BOOM Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkmks-
PudgeJaCkky
Queen of PainMoon
EnigmaFbz
Primal BeastMidOne
BatriderYopaj
Spirit BreakerAhFu
ChenSkem
SilencerPoloson
Nyx AssassinTims
Game 2prediction correct9:26
Team SMG 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenmks-
LeshracYopaj
PangolierMoon
SlarkJaCkky
Primal BeastMidOne
EnigmaFbz
SnapfireAhFu
UndyingSkem
BanePoloson
Nyx AssassinTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2