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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarerswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 37 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 21 game
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 20 games
50%
Visage
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 19 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 16 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 455 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
460 picks · 669 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
371 picks · 512 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 812 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
309 picks · 392 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 488 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
53%
Zeus
Zeus
256 picks · 344 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Wayfarers 51%cybercats 49%
The model gave 51% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSquad1x
49% · 87 games52% · 60 games
WindrangerEgor
Windranger
Sven
SvenDarkLord^
60% · 23 games43% · 36 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPetushara
51% · 210 games45% · 90 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
50% · 52 games50% · 147 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressHappyDyurara
54% · 135 games48% · 174 games
MarciHduo
Marci
Game 2prediction correct40:31
Wayfarers 53%cybercats 47%
The model gave 53% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDarkLord^
61% · 33 games43% · 152 games
InvokerEgor
Invoker
Lina
LinaSquad1x
49% · 175 games48% · 298 games
MarsNefrit
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPetushara
50% · 248 games53% · 77 games
LycanDkFogas
Lycan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
52% · 131 game50% · 152 games
RubickFezor
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
51% · 137 games46% · 45 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 54%
Series resultWayfarers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2