Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Bane
antoha · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
601 picks · 453 bans
Marci
460 picks · 666 bans
Dawnbreaker
371 picks · 518 bans
Puck
360 picks · 815 bans
Winter Wyvern
311 picks · 394 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 487 bans
Dazzle
258 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
256 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
MooN team 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on MooN team — the game was taken by X3 in 30:20.
Game 2prediction missed22:29
MooN team 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on MooN team — the game was taken by X3 in 39:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 52%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2