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BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 9 games
67%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 455 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
461 picks · 665 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
373 picks · 519 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 816 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
312 picks · 396 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 487 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
259 picks · 163 bans
53%
Zeus
Zeus
258 picks · 346 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Army Geniuses 55%Lilgun 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 39:32.
Game 2prediction missed18:45
Army Geniuses 55%Lilgun 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Lilgun in 47:01.
Game 3prediction correct28:19
Army Geniuses 55%Lilgun 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 37:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 55%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3