Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNGBLDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
YNGBLD
Beastmasteroften banned
zenica · 5 games
Magnus
zenica · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Rein · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Rein · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Rein · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Rein · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
600 picks · 455 bans
Marci
460 picks · 664 bans
Dawnbreaker
373 picks · 519 bans
Puck
362 picks · 815 bans
Winter Wyvern
312 picks · 396 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 485 bans
Dazzle
259 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
258 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% YNGBLD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Monaspa 52%YNGBLD 48%
The model gave 52% on Monaspa — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 31:55.
Game 2prediction missed35:18
Monaspa 52%YNGBLD 48%
The model gave 52% on Monaspa — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 30:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 52%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2