?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wayfarerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monaspa

No games played over 6 months.

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 10 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
614 picks · 471 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 673 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 541 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 833 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
320 picks · 403 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 481 bans
50%
Zeus
Zeus
267 picks · 348 bans
44%
Dazzle
Dazzle
263 picks · 163 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 78%
Hero pool strength56% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Wayfarers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:48
Monaspa 43%Wayfarers 57%
The model gave 57% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 44:34.
Game 2prediction correct25:29
Monaspa 43%Wayfarers 57%
The model gave 57% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 39:32.
Game 3prediction correct8:25
Monaspa 43%Wayfarers 57%
The model gave 57% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 27:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteWayfarers · 57%
Series resultWayfarers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3