Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopeloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 11 games
Iosignature
antoha · 8 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Bane
antoha · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
614 picks · 471 bans
Marci
458 picks · 673 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 541 bans
Puck
375 picks · 833 bans
Winter Wyvern
320 picks · 403 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 481 bans
Zeus
267 picks · 348 bans
Dazzle
263 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:32
Team Empire Hope 57%X3 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by X3 in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladekrylat
LinaNattyNarwhal
TidehunterpJonn
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Omniknightantoha
BeastmasterShergarat
45% · 18 games
Vengeful Spiritvelheor
52% · 62 games
Marcidark
Game 2prediction missed29:34
Team Empire Hope 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by X3 in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingkrylat
Snipernesfeer
EnigmapJonn
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Silencerantoha
Legion CommanderShergarat
48% · 85 games
Rubickvelheor
45% · 72 games
Marcidark
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 63%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2