BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Banesignature
Poloson · 9 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 9 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Moon · 5 games
TNC Predator
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 11 games
Puckoften banned
xsilearn · 11 games
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
Marcisignature
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
615 picks · 472 bans
Marci
457 picks · 672 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 544 bans
Puck
376 picks · 832 bans
Winter Wyvern
319 picks · 403 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 479 bans
Zeus
268 picks · 350 bans
Dazzle
263 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:26
Team SMG 62%TNC Predator 38%
The model gave 62% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MiranaMidOne
Drow RangerKarma丶
Ember SpiritMoon
MarciBok
EarthshakerAhFu
Enchantresscml
UndyingPoloson
Game 2prediction correct42:10
Team SMG 61%TNC Predator 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 25:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMoon
SlarkKarma丶
Primal BeastMidOne
EnigmaBok
Earth SpiritAhFu
Dark Willowcml
Winter WyvernPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 72%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2