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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
YNGBLDwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 18 games
50%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
54%

YNGBLD

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zenica · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Rein · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Rein · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Rein · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
zenica · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnus
zenica · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
635 picks · 493 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
467 picks · 690 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
409 picks · 576 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 855 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 408 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 477 bans
51%
Zeus
Zeus
277 picks · 371 bans
44%
Enchantress
Enchantress
268 picks · 323 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
X3 56%YNGBLD 44%
The model gave 56% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
55% · 7 games60% · 18 games
Magnuszenica
Magnus
Necrophos
NecrophosNattyNarwhal
44% · 5 games47% · 71 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
54% · 27 games
Jakiro
Jakirodark
41% · 14 games
Marci
Marcivelheor
49% · 36 games
Game 2prediction missed21:36
X3 57%YNGBLD 43%
The model gave 57% on X3 — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
47% · 37 games48% · 28 games
Venomancerzenica
Venomancer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 54 games46% · 112 games
IoRein
Io
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
59% · 18 games
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctordark
63% · 4 games
Marci
Marcivelheor
63% · 27 games
Game 3prediction missed17:44
X3 59%YNGBLD 41%
The model gave 59% on X3 — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusNattyNarwhal
37% · 51 game41% · 70 games
Tidehunterzenica
Tidehunter
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
49% · 54 games46% · 162 games
MarciRein
Marci
Visage
VisageShergarat
63% · 35 games
Chen
Chendark
66% · 42 games
Earthshaker
Earthshakervelheor
60% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 63%
Series resultYNGBLD 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3