BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 8 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 8 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
pieliedie · 4 games
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 10 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 9 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
635 picks · 493 bans
Marci
467 picks · 688 bans
Dawnbreaker
408 picks · 576 bans
Puck
403 picks · 854 bans
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 476 bans
Zeus
277 picks · 371 bans
Enchantress
268 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 19%
Hero pool strength61% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Team SMG 68%Neon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursamks-
Drow RangerFortuneSoul
LycanMidOne
Marsseimei
Queen of PainMoon
MiranaPlayHard
SnapfireAhFu
UndyingSe
BanePoloson
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Team SMG 67%Neon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingmks-
UrsaFortuneSoul
Primal BeastMidOne
Dawnbreakerseimei
Queen of PainMoon
LionPlayHard
SnapfireAhFu
Crystal MaidenSe
BanePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 80%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2