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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarerswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Immersion · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
HappyDyurara · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
639 picks · 500 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
469 picks · 687 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
417 picks · 582 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 859 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
333 picks · 412 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
292 picks · 476 bans
52%
Zeus
Zeus
282 picks · 379 bans
44%
Razor
Razor
267 picks · 473 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Wayfarers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Wayfarers 68%HF 32%
The model gave 68% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by HF in 27:52.
Game 2prediction correct44:14
Wayfarers 68%HF 32%
The model gave 68% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 44:38.
Game 3prediction correct32:16
Wayfarers 68%HF 32%
The model gave 68% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 32:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteWayfarers · 68%
Series resultWayfarers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3