BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Ravensloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 17 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Marcioften banned
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Ravens
Tinysignature
d1smar · 11 games
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Benjaz · 6 games
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
645 picks · 504 bans
Marci
472 picks · 693 bans
Dawnbreaker
417 picks · 587 bans
Puck
413 picks · 867 bans
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 480 bans
Zeus
284 picks · 382 bans
Razor
267 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 57%
Hero pool strength69% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
The Cut 38%Ravens 62%
The model gave 62% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
TimbersawLil_Nick
BeastmasterBenjaz
Pangolierred2
Primal BeastÑengoflow KELOKE
Marcibgod
EnchantressCara
45% · 131 game
RubickGenek
Game 2prediction missed38:16
The Cut 36%Ravens 64%
The model gave 64% on Ravens — the game was taken by The Cut in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordScourge McDuck
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Pangolierred2
VisageBenjaz
Death ProphetLil_Nick
Primal BeastÑengoflow KELOKE
Marcibgod
Monkey KingGenek
44% · 170 games
GrimstrokeCara
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2