The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Hoodwink
Ari · 33 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 21 game
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 18 games
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 17 games
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 17 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwink
rue · 40 games
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Ringmastersignature
rue · 20 games
Rubicksignature
not me · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
rue · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Larl · 17 games
Batridersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Phoenix
Panto · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
486 picks · 338 bans
Bane
356 picks · 439 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 550 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 477 bans
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 629 bans
Tiny
295 picks · 323 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 205 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
1w Team 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Game 2prediction correct18:40
1w Team 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerPure~
Shadow FiendYatoro
Doom33
LinaLarl
Ember Spiritbzm
UnderlordCollapse
UndyingWhitemon
Clockwerkrue
HoodwinkAri
Dark Willownot me
Game 3prediction correct34:45
1w Team 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
Lone DruidYatoro
Doom33
PangolierLarl
KezPure~
UndyingCollapse
HoodwinkAri
Tuskrue
RingmasterWhitemon
Windrangernot me
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3