Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zorka Gamingwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SS9loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zorka Gaming
Tiny
OneJey · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
Arti_Shock · 2 games
Pudge
dizzying · 2 games
Sven
dizzying · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
klassnokruto · 2 games
S9
Chenoften banned
lilskrip · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Linaoften banned
keintseru · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
illusion · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
keintseru · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
646 picks · 506 bans
Marci
474 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
420 picks · 596 bans
Puck
417 picks · 876 bans
Winter Wyvern
335 picks · 413 bans
Death Prophet
289 picks · 477 bans
Zeus
287 picks · 385 bans
Razor
269 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Zorka Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Zorka Gaming 54%S9 46%
The model gave 54% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 26:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svendizzying
Sniperparadise'
LinaMiyaoo
Death ProphetSuperNova
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Tinykeintseru
Shadow ShamanOneJey
Rubickillusion
OmniknightArti_Shock
Marcililskrip
Game 2prediction correct38:22
Zorka Gaming 54%S9 46%
The model gave 54% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Faceless Voidparadise'
Svendizzying
Queen of Painkeintseru
LinaMiyaoo
TimbersawSuperNova
Crystal MaidenArti_Shock
Chenlilskrip
TinyOneJey
Hoodwinkillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteZorka Gaming · 54%
Series resultZorka Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2