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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Anime Enjoyerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 35 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 14 games
64%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 13 games
54%

Anime Enjoyers

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sunset · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sunset · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Ulnit · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
sunset · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
651 picks · 512 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 705 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
427 picks · 604 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
421 picks · 879 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
338 picks · 415 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
289 picks · 386 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
286 picks · 477 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
270 picks · 486 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:34
IVY 52%Anime Enjoyers 48%
The model gave 52% on IVY — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 20:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMax
54% · 70 games42% · 78 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerQupe
50% · 12 games52% · 31 game
Earth Spiritsunset
Earth Spirit
Marci
Marcijmn-
54% · 27 games
Game 2prediction missed14:45
IVY 53%Anime Enjoyers 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMax
49% · 82 games47% · 31 game
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQupe
54% · 27 games46% · 95 games
Marcisunset
Marci
Sven
Svenjmn-
60% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 56%
Series resultAnime Enjoyers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2