Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wayfarerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Shadow Fiend
Rvze · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lefitan · 10 games
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 7 games
Wayfarers
Death Prophetsignature
Cloud · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
652 picks · 517 bans
Marci
474 picks · 708 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 607 bans
Puck
424 picks · 885 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 418 bans
Zeus
291 picks · 391 bans
Death Prophet
284 picks · 475 bans
Razor
273 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Wayfarers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:39
EZ KATKA 50%Wayfarers 50%
The model gave 50% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidLukas
UrsaSmiling Knight
PangolierRvze
Death ProphetPetushara
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
Queen of PainSquad1x
SnapfireLefitan
Marcixsvampire
62% · 270 games
BaneHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct24:47
EZ KATKA 48%Wayfarers 52%
The model gave 52% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaRvze
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
BloodseekerLukas
DoomPetushara
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
BatriderSquad1x
MarciLefitan
Rubickxsvampire
48% · 196 games
Death ProphetHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteWayfarers · 51%
Series resultWayfarers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2