EEF Dota 2 Qualifier 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Украинаwin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Польшаloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
No games played over 6 months.
Польша
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
652 picks · 520 bans
Marci
478 picks · 705 bans
Dawnbreaker
437 picks · 607 bans
Puck
427 picks · 889 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 418 bans
Zeus
291 picks · 394 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 473 bans
Razor
274 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Украина
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
Украина 61%Польша 39%
The model gave 61% on Украина — the game was taken by Украина in 40:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 61%
Series resultУкраина 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1