HULIGANI vs Team Stels — prediction BSVОК · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam VII. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

HULIGANIwin 2:1

series probability

88%12%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Team Stelsloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunnersignature

Bb3px · 43 games

70%

Marsoften banned

Bb3px · 42 games

48%

Jakirooften banned

RESPECT · 38 games

47%

Shadow Demonsignature

slimeyao · 37 games

62%

Skywrath Magesignature

slimeyao · 37 games

68%

Tinyoften banned

erase · 30 games

57%

Chensignature

RESPECT · 29 games

69%

Tusk

slimeyao · 27 games

52%

Team Stels

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

ArrOw · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

677 picks · 843 bans

49%

Tiny

572 picks · 582 bans

49%

Tusk

500 picks · 429 bans

49%

Warlock

476 picks · 334 bans

48%

Shadow Demon

416 picks · 1137 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

403 picks · 686 bans

57%

Mars

395 picks · 620 bans

48%

Shadow Fiend

395 picks · 1028 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%

Hero pool strength51% Team Stels

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total88% HULIGANI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct40:26

HULIGANI 77%Team Stels 23%

The model gave 77% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:28.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo