EEF Dota 2 Qualifier 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Украинаwin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Францияloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
No games played over 6 months.
Франция
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
655 picks · 520 bans
Marci
473 picks · 708 bans
Dawnbreaker
437 picks · 609 bans
Puck
429 picks · 890 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 417 bans
Zeus
291 picks · 390 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 472 bans
Razor
275 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Украина
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Франция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Украина 47%Франция 53%
The model gave 53% on Франция — the game was taken by Украина.
Model check result
Model favoriteФранция · 53%
Series resultУкраина 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1