?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Rvze · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Blizzy · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
33%

X3

Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 18 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
64%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 520 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 708 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
437 picks · 609 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
429 picks · 890 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 417 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
291 picks · 390 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 472 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
275 picks · 494 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
EZ KATKA 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
47% · 128 games46% · 65 games
Ursanesfeer
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRvze
51% · 225 games51% · 240 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBlizzy
52% · 188 games57% · 31 game
VenomancerShergarat
Venomancer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLefitan
51% · 48 games47% · 178 games
Death Prophetdark
Death Prophet
51% · 75 games
Nyx Assassinvelheor
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed17:40
EZ KATKA 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by X3 in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
50% · 187 games45% · 80 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierRvze
51% · 258 games59% · 213 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBlizzy
46% · 61 game53% · 70 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLefitan
45% · 36 games47% · 88 games
Marcivelheor
Marci
48% · 91 game
Enchantressdark
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct20:33
EZ KATKA 50%X3 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerLukas
50% · 42 games43% · 73 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Lina
LinaRvze
54% · 111 games44% · 52 games
LycanShergarat
Lycan
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBlizzy
58% · 48 games52% · 69 games
BatriderNattyNarwhal
Batrider
Marci
MarciLefitan
54% · 122 games47% · 48 games
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Shadow Shaman
44% · 81 game
Undyingdark
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 52%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3