?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNGBLDloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 10 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
17%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
33%

YNGBLD

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zenica · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Rein · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnus
zenica · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zenica · 1 game
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Rein · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 519 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 708 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
437 picks · 609 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 892 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
294 picks · 388 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 471 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
276 picks · 495 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% YNGBLD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
EZ KATKA 53%YNGBLD 47%
The model gave 53% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
54% · 23 games53% · 73 games
Enigmazenica
Enigma
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
41% · 26 games60% · 68 games
ChenRein
Chen
Timbersaw
TimbersawBlizzy
45% · 50 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLefitan
36% · 42 games
Game 2prediction correct37:12
EZ KATKA 56%YNGBLD 44%
The model gave 56% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLukas
42% · 77 games55% · 151 game
Beastmasterzenica
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierRvze
51% · 75 games54% · 107 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
40% · 31 game
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLefitan
50% · 75 games
Game 3prediction correct24:24
EZ KATKA 52%YNGBLD 48%
The model gave 52% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
27% · 7 games55% · 60 games
Enigmazenica
Enigma
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
64% · 10 games56% · 8 games
Witch DoctorRein
Witch Doctor
Jakiro
JakiroBlizzy
47% · 11 games
Marci
MarciLefitan
40% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 61%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3