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BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
30%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 8 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Se · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
50%

TNC Predator

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 16 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 11 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 11 games
82%
Puck
Puckoften banned
xsilearn · 11 games
55%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 518 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
474 picks · 709 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
438 picks · 611 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 892 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 420 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
295 picks · 389 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
282 picks · 470 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
276 picks · 495 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 31%
Hero pool strength60% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
Neon Esports 47%TNC Predator 53%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageFortuneSoul
66% · 23 games41% · 128 games
Queen of PainKarma丶
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEnryu
47% · 136 games69% · 9 games
Primal BeastBok
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
46% · 44 games52% · 77 games
Clockwerkcml
Clockwerk
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSe
58% · 11 games
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Neon Esports 45%TNC Predator 55%
The model gave 55% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 55:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
TuskPlayHard
40% · 50 games48% · 90 games
MorphlingKarma丶
Morphling
Enchantress
EnchantressEnryu
49% · 56 games60% · 79 games
Chencml
Chen
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendFortuneSoul
47% · 33 games45% · 22 games
MagnusBok
Magnus
Undying
UndyingSe
53% · 52 games
Game 3prediction correct18:30
Neon Esports 45%TNC Predator 55%
The model gave 55% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendFortuneSoul
47% · 33 games47% · 61 game
MorphlingKarma丶
Morphling
Enchantress
EnchantressEnryu
49% · 56 games44% · 18 games
MagnusBok
Magnus
Undying
UndyingSe
53% · 52 games56% · 62 games
Chencml
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 58%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3