BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Wolf Teamloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Marcioften banned
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
660 picks · 520 bans
Marci
477 picks · 704 bans
Dawnbreaker
443 picks · 610 bans
Puck
434 picks · 896 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
Zeus
296 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
280 picks · 469 bans
Razor
276 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:36
The Cut 39%Wolf Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 46:22.
Game 2prediction missed53:43
The Cut 39%Wolf Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by The Cut in 46:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2