?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarerswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Cloud · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
88%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%

X3

Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 18 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
64%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 519 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
476 picks · 702 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
442 picks · 610 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 896 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
296 picks · 389 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 469 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
276 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
Wayfarers 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDarkLord^
58% · 146 games47% · 151 game
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
51% · 19 games48% · 88 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPetushara
48% · 260 games45% · 85 games
TimbersawShergarat
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxsvampire
51% · 60 games43% · 117 games
Hoodwinkvelheor
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
60% · 56 games47% · 100 games
Enchantressdark
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed32:21
Wayfarers 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDarkLord^
50% · 53 games53% · 49 games
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPetushara
51% · 215 games50% · 267 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
50% · 324 games53% · 126 games
VisageShergarat
Visage
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
49% · 92 games46% · 90 games
Jakirodark
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressHappyDyurara
51% · 122 games48% · 274 games
Marcivelheor
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultWayfarers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2