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BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Palos · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 17 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 519 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
474 picks · 705 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
444 picks · 611 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 897 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 420 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
297 picks · 388 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 467 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
276 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:48
Execration 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPalos
63% · 58 games49% · 77 games
Faceless Voiddb-
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTino-
50% · 26 games51% · 133 games
MarciwoMy
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
49% · 185 games50% · 172 games
PangolierinYourdreaM
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
42% · 111 games59% · 14 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Lich
LichRR
43% · 32 games53% · 16 games
Witch DoctorVarizh
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct12:41
Execration 44%Army Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 25:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomPalos
48% · 133 games47% · 93 games
Nature's Prophetdb-
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckBob
55% · 236 games47% · 22 games
BroodmotherwoMy
Broodmother
Marci
MarciTino-
53% · 130 games46% · 244 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickShanks
45% · 188 games48% · 293 games
WeaverNARMAN
Weaver
Chen
ChenRR
58% · 72 games52% · 107 games
UndyingVarizh
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 63%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2