BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 10 games
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 9 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 8 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
661 picks · 519 bans
Marci
470 picks · 706 bans
Dawnbreaker
444 picks · 613 bans
Puck
433 picks · 899 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
Zeus
297 picks · 388 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 464 bans
Razor
277 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
Lilgun 63%Neon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:02.
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Lilgun 63%Neon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 63%
Accuracy by game0 of 2