BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
No Runesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Tiny
Lil_Nick · 7 games
No Runes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
663 picks · 521 bans
Marci
470 picks · 713 bans
Dawnbreaker
446 picks · 617 bans
Puck
437 picks · 900 bans
Winter Wyvern
344 picks · 417 bans
Zeus
297 picks · 388 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 465 bans
Razor
279 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% No Runes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:39
The Cut 40%No Runes 60%
The model gave 60% on No Runes — the game was taken by The Cut in 51:01.
Game 2prediction correct23:33
The Cut 40%No Runes 60%
The model gave 60% on No Runes — the game was taken by No Runes in 34:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Runes · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2