European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Movewin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 27 games
Pangolier
Covisnine · 26 games
Techies
ariel · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 17 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
487 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 160 bans
Mirana
358 picks · 158 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 479 bans
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 302 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 471 bans
Winter Wyvern
288 picks · 269 bans
Clockwerk
267 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:27
Two Move 80%Nemiga Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 52:20.
Game 2prediction correct26:22
Two Move 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosWoE
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
BeastmasterBb3px
Tinybyun
InvokerAinkrad
Storm Spirityoung G
Windrangerqueezy
Dark Willowariel
Winter WyvernRein
BaneVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 80%
Series resultTwo Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2