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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
S9win 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

S9

Undying
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 3 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
lilskrip · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
illusion · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
keintseru · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
illusion · 1 game
0%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 48 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 40 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 37 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 35 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 32 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 27 games
44%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Kami · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
669 picks · 520 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
472 picks · 714 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 617 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 905 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 416 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
297 picks · 392 bans
44%
Razor
Razor
280 picks · 507 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
278 picks · 462 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:11
S9 41%No Sorry 59%
The model gave 59% on No Sorry — the game was taken by S9 in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakeintseru
50% · 203 games55% · 39 games
Troll WarlordKami
Troll Warlord
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightparadise'
46% · 198 games44% · 221 game
Death ProphetCloud
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaSuperNova
52% · 120 games49% · 49 games
WindrangerWorick
Windranger
Chen
Chenlilskrip
63% · 117 games47% · 289 games
Tinyy0nd
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinillusion
50% · 93 games48% · 133 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct0:0
S9 39%No Sorry 61%
The model gave 61% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 53:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakeintseru
54% · 133 games48% · 203 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaSuperNova
58% · 110 games49% · 38 games
Shadow FiendKami
Shadow Fiend
Weaver
Weaverparadise'
57% · 183 games44% · 120 games
ViperCloud
Viper
Sven
Svenillusion
53% · 35 games48% · 100 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Undying
Enchantress
Enchantresslilskrip
51% · 167 games40% · 167 games
Dawnbreakery0nd
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 71%
Series resultS9 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2