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BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
31%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
13%
Techies
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Lil_Nick · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
669 picks · 525 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
471 picks · 719 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
460 picks · 618 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
446 picks · 911 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
348 picks · 416 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
300 picks · 392 bans
45%
Razor
Razor
280 picks · 511 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
278 picks · 456 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Team DogChamp 56%The Cut 44%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by The Cut in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkStoneBank
55% · 28 games46% · 139 games
Ember Spiritred2
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerRCY
49% · 71 game54% · 62 games
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaITALIANO GANGSTA
50% · 49 games56% · 11 games
Techiesbgod
Techies
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBloody Nine
40% · 22 games52% · 24 games
MagnusLil_Nick
Magnus
Marci
MarciJubei
53% · 66 games
Game 2prediction missed24:60
Team DogChamp 57%The Cut 43%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by The Cut in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerStoneBank
50% · 50 games48% · 120 games
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckRCY
54% · 179 games45% · 204 games
Invokerred2
Invoker
Mars
MarsITALIANO GANGSTA
48% · 220 games49% · 153 games
BatriderLil_Nick
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
44% · 66 games58% · 151 game
Marcibgod
Marci
Io
IoJubei
54% · 113 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 60%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2