Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Bane
antoha · 19 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
nesfeer · 13 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
No Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
Flash · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Viperoften banned
Shad · 4 games
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
669 picks · 524 bans
Marci
470 picks · 721 bans
Dawnbreaker
462 picks · 619 bans
Puck
446 picks · 913 bans
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 419 bans
Zeus
300 picks · 391 bans
Razor
282 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:28
X3 58%No Bounty Hunter 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Linalegacy
ZeusNattyNarwhal
Shadow FiendkAAN
UndyingShergarat
BeastmasterArisE
Enchantressdark
Vengeful SpiritFlash
Nyx Assassinvelheor
Game 2prediction correct33:11
X3 58%No Bounty Hunter 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
Chaos KnightkAAN
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Invokerlegacy
BeastmasterShergarat
Dragon KnightArisE
Hoodwinkvelheor
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Marcidark
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 65%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2