Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 49 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 41 game
Tiny
Worick · 37 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 34 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 33 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 28 games
Juggernautsignature
Kami · 24 games
YNT
Sand King
Dominic · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
668 picks · 524 bans
Marci
471 picks · 721 bans
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 620 bans
Puck
447 picks · 916 bans
Winter Wyvern
350 picks · 420 bans
Zeus
300 picks · 393 bans
Razor
282 picks · 512 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 451 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% No Sorry
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total60% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:46
No Sorry 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by YNT in 38:27.
Game 2prediction correct29:12
No Sorry 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 32:38.
Game 3prediction correct35:16
No Sorry 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 60%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3