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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
S9win 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

S9

Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 2 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
keintseru · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
illusion · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
illusion · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
keintseru · 1 game
0%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 35 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 14 games
64%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
668 picks · 525 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 721 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
468 picks · 620 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
449 picks · 920 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
352 picks · 420 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
304 picks · 395 bans
44%
Razor
Razor
283 picks · 516 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
274 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
S9 40%IVY 60%
The model gave 60% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 48:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendparadise'
47% · 28 games45% · 72 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Pangolier
Pangolierkeintseru
51% · 119 games53% · 187 games
LinaMo13ei
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterSuperNova
39% · 114 games64% · 60 games
VisageMax
Visage
Clockwerk
Clockwerkillusion
40% · 90 games58% · 29 games
SvenQupe
Sven
Undying
Undyinglilskrip
52% · 71 game54% · 74 games
Chenjmn-
Chen
Game 2prediction missed34:20
S9 41%IVY 59%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by S9 in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkeintseru
49% · 136 games46% · 231 game
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidparadise'
49% · 48 games58% · 14 games
SlarkLowskill
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSuperNova
49% · 85 games54% · 46 games
Centaur WarrunnerMax
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
Chenlilskrip
54% · 56 games52% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionQupe
Ancient Apparition
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageillusion
50% · 72 games49% · 82 games
Undyingjmn-
Undying
Game 3prediction missed33:14
S9 41%IVY 59%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by S9 in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingparadise'
43% · 107 games54% · 55 games
LeshracMo13ei
Leshrac
Batrider
Batriderkeintseru
55% · 101 game52% · 39 games
Shadow FiendLowskill
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperSuperNova
47% · 76 games50% · 104 games
UndyingMax
Undying
Chen
Chenlilskrip
51% · 72 games47% · 220 games
Death ProphetQupe
Death Prophet
Marci
Marciillusion
53% · 109 games48% · 47 games
Omniknightjmn-
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 68%
Series resultS9 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3