Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 16 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
nesfeer · 13 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
675 picks · 528 bans
Marci
477 picks · 726 bans
Dawnbreaker
475 picks · 625 bans
Puck
451 picks · 931 bans
Winter Wyvern
357 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
310 picks · 395 bans
Razor
286 picks · 519 bans
Dazzle
274 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% HF
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:32
X3 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 1:01:40.
Game 2prediction correct37:19
X3 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 62%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2