Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNGBLDwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNGBLD
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
681 picks · 534 bans
Marci
479 picks · 735 bans
Dawnbreaker
476 picks · 629 bans
Puck
455 picks · 945 bans
Winter Wyvern
359 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
311 picks · 394 bans
Razor
286 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
279 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:34
YNGBLD 46%HF 54%
The model gave 54% on HF — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 1:01:01.
Game 2prediction correct46:19
YNGBLD 46%HF 54%
The model gave 54% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 48:56.
Game 3prediction missed34:31
YNGBLD 46%HF 54%
The model gave 54% on HF — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 47:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 54%
Series resultYNGBLD 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3