Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs predictionSS9loss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
S9
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Sand King
Dominic · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
681 picks · 534 bans
Marci
480 picks · 738 bans
Dawnbreaker
478 picks · 631 bans
Puck
454 picks · 951 bans
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
312 picks · 395 bans
Razor
286 picks · 532 bans
Snapfire
281 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% S9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
S9 39%YNT 61%
The model gave 61% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 26:44.
Game 2prediction correct16:33
S9 39%YNT 61%
The model gave 61% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 36:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 61%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2