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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 15 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 14 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
62%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
42%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 10 games
80%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
697 picks · 548 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
497 picks · 762 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 644 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
468 picks · 980 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 424 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
320 picks · 401 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
295 picks · 542 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 152 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:33
Team Liquid 47%Team Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:09:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
48% · 35 games48% · 49 games
LinaNisha
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
53% · 39 games48% · 107 games
Death ProphetResolut1on
Death Prophet
Pudge
PudgeMATUMBAMAN
54% · 47 games48% · 122 games
DawnbreakerCrystallis
Dawnbreaker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
52% · 20 games52% · 14 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Marci
MarciBoxi
55% · 209 games43% · 58 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct19:33
Team Liquid 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
40% · 63 games51% · 187 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Zeus
ZeusmiCKe
50% · 104 games58% · 119 games
EnigmaResolut1on
Enigma
Mars
Marszai
48% · 283 games49% · 127 games
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
50% · 63 games55% · 37 games
Centaur WarrunnerPuppey
Centaur Warrunner
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
47% · 46 games52% · 89 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct32:34
Team Liquid 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 55:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
68% · 14 games55% · 201 game
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangoliermiCKe
48% · 208 games52% · 131 game
MorphlingNisha
Morphling
Razor
Razorzai
51% · 234 games49% · 254 games
Death ProphetResolut1on
Death Prophet
Marci
MarciBoxi
50% · 171 game45% · 112 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
44% · 86 games55% · 15 games
Witch DoctorPuppey
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 59%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3