The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 9 games
Into The Breach
Tinysignature
Ari · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 19 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 547 bans
Marci
496 picks · 762 bans
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 644 bans
Puck
470 picks · 979 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 401 bans
Snapfire
296 picks · 152 bans
Razor
295 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
Team Secret 56%Into The Breach 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
KunkkaSupream^
PangolierNisha
SlarkOtaker
MarciResolut1on
EnigmaXibbe
RubickZayac
Spirit BreakerAri
EnchantressPuppey
Witch DoctorKidaro
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Team Secret 56%Into The Breach 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterResolut1on
LinaSupream^
Naga SirenCrystallis
LycanXibbe
TuskNisha
SlarkOtaker
Witch DoctorPuppey
Spirit BreakerAri
Skywrath MageZayac
OmniknightKidaro
Game 3prediction correct50:27
Team Secret 56%Into The Breach 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:08:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNisha
InvokerSupream^
LeshracResolut1on
SlarkOtaker
Monkey KingCrystallis
VenomancerXibbe
TuskZayac
TinyAri
Centaur WarrunnerPuppey
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 64%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3