The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 15 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
701 picks · 551 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 647 bans
Marci
496 picks · 765 bans
Puck
474 picks · 981 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 423 bans
Zeus
318 picks · 400 bans
Snapfire
301 picks · 154 bans
Razor
295 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
Team Liquid 34%Entity 66%
The model gave 66% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 40:00.
Game 2prediction correct30:36
Team Liquid 34%Entity 66%
The model gave 66% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 48:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 66%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2