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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
50%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 9 games
56%

Nigma Galaxy

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 13 games
54%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
KuroKy · 9 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
700 picks · 553 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 648 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
497 picks · 768 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
475 picks · 985 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
322 picks · 398 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
302 picks · 155 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
296 picks · 549 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:23
Team Secret 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 52:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
51% · 200 games61% · 35 games
PudgeMiracle-
Pudge
Slark
SlarkNisha
52% · 19 games47% · 56 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaResolut1on
50% · 88 games54% · 89 games
BatriderSumaiL
Batrider
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPuppey
57% · 3 games44% · 103 games
IoGH
Io
Tusk
TuskZayac
49% · 91 game45% · 118 games
MarciKuroKy
Marci
Game 2prediction missed28:41
Team Secret 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
51% · 131 game47% · 132 games
BloodseekerMiracle-
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightResolut1on
49% · 121 game48% · 108 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
58% · 173 games45% · 123 games
PhoenixMinD_ContRoL
Phoenix
Chen
ChenPuppey
54% · 69 games46% · 9 games
Primal BeastKuroKy
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranaZayac
55% · 129 games47% · 251 game
IoGH
Io
Game 3prediction correct45:6
Team Secret 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
36% · 14 games47% · 33 games
SpectreMiracle-
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
47% · 111 games42% · 88 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetResolut1on
44% · 128 games54% · 137 games
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
Batrider
Rubick
RubickPuppey
47% · 89 games59% · 81 game
EarthshakerGH
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
46% · 88 games67% · 91 game
UndyingKuroKy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 59%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3