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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 10 games
40%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Karma丶 · 7 games
14%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
703 picks · 553 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 648 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
495 picks · 768 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
474 picks · 986 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 420 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
322 picks · 397 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 155 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
296 picks · 550 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Polaris Esports 64%Neon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNatsumi
51% · 61 game48% · 121 game
MorphlingFortuneSoul
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMac
44% · 117 games52% · 150 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
64% · 11 games57% · 62 games
EarthshakerPlayHard
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenEyyou
56% · 84 games42% · 115 games
Winter WyvernSe
Winter Wyvern
Snapfire
SnapfireBoomy
50% · 175 games
Game 2prediction correct19:13
Polaris Esports 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNatsumi
53% · 96 games45% · 89 games
BristlebackFortuneSoul
Bristleback
Visage
VisageMac
56% · 50 games51% · 160 games
WeaverEnryu
Weaver
Viper
ViperForce
49% · 72 games52% · 67 games
EarthshakerPlayHard
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenEyyou
45% · 57 games57% · 65 games
UndyingSe
Undying
Marci
MarciBoomy
43% · 106 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2