The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
XERXIAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
703 picks · 554 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 647 bans
Marci
496 picks · 767 bans
Puck
473 picks · 988 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 420 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
302 picks · 155 bans
Razor
297 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
RSG 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 28:45.
Game 2prediction correct46:12
RSG 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 35:16.
Game 3prediction correct14:32
RSG 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 31:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 64%
Series resultRSG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3