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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 17 games
88%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DM · 14 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Mirana
Saksa · 13 games
38%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 39 games
49%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 295 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
376 picks · 166 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
367 picks · 161 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 484 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 308 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 278 bans
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 478 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total80% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Team Yandex 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 47:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWatson
53% · 96 games46% · 158 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
57% · 50 games47% · 179 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
57% · 279 games47% · 113 games
ViperShad
Viper
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorMalady
43% · 53 games47% · 166 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Rubick
RubickSaksa
48% · 192 games58% · 54 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct51:11
Team Yandex 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWatson
52% · 127 games38% · 19 games
Phantom LancerShad
Phantom Lancer
Viper
ViperATF
44% · 144 games47% · 129 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Slark
SlarkChira JUNIOR
59% · 111 games49% · 278 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Bane
BaneMalady
54% · 312 games47% · 359 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSaksa
54% · 215 games50% · 124 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 80%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2