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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 29 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 16 games
31%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
xNova · 13 games
69%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 296 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 168 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 162 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 489 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 308 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 284 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 481 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
272 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:38
Xtreme Gaming 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
44% · 104 games47% · 120 games
SvenWits
Sven
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzeal
49% · 92 games52% · 248 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXm
46% · 198 games50% · 370 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
55% · 636 games47% · 310 games
WindrangerThiolicor
Windranger
Undying
UndyingBoBoKa
48% · 181 game64% · 163 games
Winter WyvernSneyking
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed10:39
Xtreme Gaming 53%LGD Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
52% · 25 games53% · 241 game
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierXm
53% · 225 games43% · 74 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Doom
Doomzeal
52% · 187 games46% · 178 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesXinQ
52% · 137 games45% · 143 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
46% · 114 games60% · 52 games
Bounty HunterSneyking
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2