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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 17 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 25 games
60%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 22 games
77%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 21 game
67%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
375 picks · 168 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
368 picks · 161 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 483 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 308 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 276 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 479 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 78%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:20
Team Nemesis 29%Natus Vincere 71%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenJaCkky
48% · 110 games58% · 224 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
49% · 87 games50% · 178 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMo13ei
39% · 25 games54% · 89 games
LinaNiku
Lina
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
51% · 222 games45% · 46 games
Witch DoctorRiddys
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
50% · 250 games47% · 157 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct15:28
Team Nemesis 31%Natus Vincere 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzJaCkky
50% · 124 games45% · 98 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
54% · 148 games50% · 89 games
LinaNiku
Lina
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMo13ei
51% · 26 games56% · 202 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
49% · 183 games50% · 151 game
BaneRiddys
Bane
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
49% · 253 games47% · 194 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct22:29
Team Nemesis 29%Natus Vincere 71%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
50% · 97 games49% · 153 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
50% · 241 game52% · 259 games
Axepma
Axe
Lina
LinaMo13ei
53% · 57 games57% · 37 games
MagnusNiku
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
49% · 179 games52% · 230 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
49% · 172 games44% · 67 games
Witch DoctorRiddys
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3