PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
Rubick
fy · 20 games
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 19 games
Phoenix
xNova · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
Doomsignature
Xxs · 13 games
GamerLegion
Dark Willow
Bignum · 27 games
Miranasignature
Speeed · 24 games
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 19 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
Kezsignature
RCY · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
500 picks · 298 bans
Dark Willow
385 picks · 169 bans
Mirana
370 picks · 164 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 491 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
Winter Wyvern
300 picks · 283 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 486 bans
Undying
274 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
Xtreme Gaming 55%GamerLegion 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerAme
Nature's ProphetTimado
Dark Seerzeal
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
LinaXm
LargoRCY
JakiroBoBoKa
Bounty HunterBignum
Spirit BreakerXinQ
DazzleSpeeed
Game 2prediction correct34:23
Xtreme Gaming 58%GamerLegion 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAme
TerrorbladeTimado
Storm SpiritXm
Dragon KnightRCY
Doomzeal
BatriderFayde
WindrangerXinQ
Winter WyvernSpeeed
DazzleBoBoKa
Bounty HunterBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2